엘리트로 보는 유라시아의 변화 2(한신대학교 유라시아연구소 HEI 총서 5)
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한신대학교 유라시아연구소는 2023년부터 유라시아에서 벌어지는 일들과 지역 엘리트에 대한 대중들의 지적 호기심을 충족시키며 그 인식의 지평을 확장하고자 ‘ HEI 총서’ 중 일부를 ‘엘리트로 보는 유라시아의 변화’ 시리즈로 기획하고 출판하기로 하였다. ‘엘리트로 보는 유라시아의 변화 Ⅱ’는 그 시리즈의 두 번째이다. 각 장의 글은 한신대학교 유라시아연구소가 2021년 하반기를 시작으로 정기 발간하고 있는 웹진 유라시아 브리프(Eurasia Brief) 2023년 하반기부터 2024년 상반기까지 실린 글 중 시리즈 기획 취지와 부합하고 주제 의식이 분명한 것들을 엄선한 것이다. 특히 이번에는 지역 범위를 대폭 확대하여 중국, 우크라이나, 튀르키예, 태국, 키르기스스탄, 타지키스탄, 필리핀, 대만까지 두루 다루었다.
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'엘리트로 보는 유라시아의 변화 Ⅱ'를 펴내며 ······························· 8
1장 중국 시진핑 집권 3기의 '2인자': 리창(李强) 총리
유은하 (한신대학교)
Ⅰ. 들어가는 말 ······················································································ 13
Ⅱ. 리창의 주요 커리어와 시진핑 ···························································· 13
Ⅲ. 총리 리창의 강점과 약점 ··································································· 15
Ⅳ. 리창 신임 총리의 당면 임무 및 대응 전망 ········································ 21
2장 우크라이나 젤렌스키 대통령: '정치 초보'에서 '전쟁 영웅'으로?
박정호 (대외경제정책연구원)
Ⅰ. 우크라이나 정치사와 정치 신인 젤렌스키의 등장 ······························· 29
Ⅱ. 젤렌스키의 2019년 대선 승리와 조기 총선 실시 ······························ 31
Ⅲ. 집권 3년차 젤렌스키 대통령의 국정운영 평가 ··································· 33
Ⅳ. 젤렌스키 대통령의 전시 리더십 ························································· 35
3장 권위주의적 이슬람주의 지도자 튀르키예 에르도안 대통령의 정치적 성공 요인
양민지 (부산외국어대학교)
Ⅰ. 들어가는 말 ······················································································ 41
Ⅱ. 권위주의적 아버지와 보수적 종교 환경 아래 성장한 에르도안 ··········· 41
Ⅲ. 에르도안의 청년시절 정치 입문과정 ··················································· 43
Ⅳ. 이슬람주의와 에르도안의 정치적 지지 기반 ······································· 46
Ⅴ. 에르도안의 권위주의적 리더십의 성공배경 ········································· 51
Ⅵ. 나가는 말 ························································································· 58
4장 혁신가 마윈 (?云)
문익준 (국민대학교)
Ⅰ. 들어가는 말 ······················································································ 65
Ⅱ. 마윈의 실패 ······················································································ 66
Ⅲ. 혁신가로서의 마윈 ············································································· 70
Ⅳ. 마윈의 새로운 혁신 ··········································································· 79
5장 2023 태국 총선과 새로운 정치 엘리트의 등장: 좌절과 희망
이미지 (부산외국어대학교)
Ⅰ. 들어가는 말 ······················································································ 85
Ⅱ. 2023 총선 결과 ··············································································· 86
Ⅲ. 정치적 엘리트층의 세대교체와 피타 림짜른랏 ···································· 89
Ⅳ. 좌절된 유권자의 목소리와 새로운 총리 ·············································· 92
Ⅴ. 나가는 말: 타이식 민주주의에서 민주주의로 향한 여정 ······················ 99
6장 키르기스스탄-타지키스탄 국경 분쟁과 권력 엘리트의 내부 정치
이지은 (한국외국어대학교)
Ⅰ. 들어가는 말 ······················································································ 109
Ⅱ. 중앙아시아 국경 분쟁의 핵심 지역: 페르가나 계곡(Fergana Valley) ···· 109
Ⅲ. 소비에트 시기 인위적으로 획정된 국경이 갈등의 원인 ······················ 111
Ⅳ. 2021년 4월, 그리고 2022년 9월 대규모 무력 충돌 ························· 112
Ⅴ. 국경 분쟁과 키르기스, 타직 권력 엘리트의 내부 정치 ······················· 113
Ⅵ. 잠정적 합의에 동의한 양국 대통령 ···················································· 116
Ⅶ. 나가는 말 ························································································· 117
7장 필리핀의 가문정치: 마르코스와 두테르테를 중심으로
김동엽 (부산외국어대학교)
Ⅰ. 머리말 ····························································································· 125
Ⅱ. 마르코스 가문의 부활: 몰락한 독재자에서 새로운 대통령으로 ·········· 127
Ⅲ. 두테르테 가문의 부상: 지방 호족에서 중앙정치 주인공으로 ············· 133
Ⅳ. 마르코스 가문과 두테르테 가문의 연합과 분열 조짐 ························ 138
Ⅴ. 맺음말 ····························································································· 144
8장 기울어진 구조와 준비된 후보: 2024년 대만 총통 선거 결과 분석
김수한 (인천연구원)
Ⅰ. 2024년 대만 총통선거 돌아보기 ····················································· 155
Ⅱ. 기울어진 사회구조와 총통선거 ························································· 157
Ⅲ. 변화에 적응한 양안관계 비전 ·························································· 160
Ⅳ. 준비된 후보 : 정당·후보 지지율 추이 및 매력도 ····························· 163
Ⅴ. 종합 및 시사점 ··············································································· 165
1장 중국 시진핑 집권 3기의 '2인자': 리창(李强) 총리
유은하 (한신대학교)
Ⅰ. 들어가는 말 ······················································································ 13
Ⅱ. 리창의 주요 커리어와 시진핑 ···························································· 13
Ⅲ. 총리 리창의 강점과 약점 ··································································· 15
Ⅳ. 리창 신임 총리의 당면 임무 및 대응 전망 ········································ 21
2장 우크라이나 젤렌스키 대통령: '정치 초보'에서 '전쟁 영웅'으로?
박정호 (대외경제정책연구원)
Ⅰ. 우크라이나 정치사와 정치 신인 젤렌스키의 등장 ······························· 29
Ⅱ. 젤렌스키의 2019년 대선 승리와 조기 총선 실시 ······························ 31
Ⅲ. 집권 3년차 젤렌스키 대통령의 국정운영 평가 ··································· 33
Ⅳ. 젤렌스키 대통령의 전시 리더십 ························································· 35
3장 권위주의적 이슬람주의 지도자 튀르키예 에르도안 대통령의 정치적 성공 요인
양민지 (부산외국어대학교)
Ⅰ. 들어가는 말 ······················································································ 41
Ⅱ. 권위주의적 아버지와 보수적 종교 환경 아래 성장한 에르도안 ··········· 41
Ⅲ. 에르도안의 청년시절 정치 입문과정 ··················································· 43
Ⅳ. 이슬람주의와 에르도안의 정치적 지지 기반 ······································· 46
Ⅴ. 에르도안의 권위주의적 리더십의 성공배경 ········································· 51
Ⅵ. 나가는 말 ························································································· 58
4장 혁신가 마윈 (?云)
문익준 (국민대학교)
Ⅰ. 들어가는 말 ······················································································ 65
Ⅱ. 마윈의 실패 ······················································································ 66
Ⅲ. 혁신가로서의 마윈 ············································································· 70
Ⅳ. 마윈의 새로운 혁신 ··········································································· 79
5장 2023 태국 총선과 새로운 정치 엘리트의 등장: 좌절과 희망
이미지 (부산외국어대학교)
Ⅰ. 들어가는 말 ······················································································ 85
Ⅱ. 2023 총선 결과 ··············································································· 86
Ⅲ. 정치적 엘리트층의 세대교체와 피타 림짜른랏 ···································· 89
Ⅳ. 좌절된 유권자의 목소리와 새로운 총리 ·············································· 92
Ⅴ. 나가는 말: 타이식 민주주의에서 민주주의로 향한 여정 ······················ 99
6장 키르기스스탄-타지키스탄 국경 분쟁과 권력 엘리트의 내부 정치
이지은 (한국외국어대학교)
Ⅰ. 들어가는 말 ······················································································ 109
Ⅱ. 중앙아시아 국경 분쟁의 핵심 지역: 페르가나 계곡(Fergana Valley) ···· 109
Ⅲ. 소비에트 시기 인위적으로 획정된 국경이 갈등의 원인 ······················ 111
Ⅳ. 2021년 4월, 그리고 2022년 9월 대규모 무력 충돌 ························· 112
Ⅴ. 국경 분쟁과 키르기스, 타직 권력 엘리트의 내부 정치 ······················· 113
Ⅵ. 잠정적 합의에 동의한 양국 대통령 ···················································· 116
Ⅶ. 나가는 말 ························································································· 117
7장 필리핀의 가문정치: 마르코스와 두테르테를 중심으로
김동엽 (부산외국어대학교)
Ⅰ. 머리말 ····························································································· 125
Ⅱ. 마르코스 가문의 부활: 몰락한 독재자에서 새로운 대통령으로 ·········· 127
Ⅲ. 두테르테 가문의 부상: 지방 호족에서 중앙정치 주인공으로 ············· 133
Ⅳ. 마르코스 가문과 두테르테 가문의 연합과 분열 조짐 ························ 138
Ⅴ. 맺음말 ····························································································· 144
8장 기울어진 구조와 준비된 후보: 2024년 대만 총통 선거 결과 분석
김수한 (인천연구원)
Ⅰ. 2024년 대만 총통선거 돌아보기 ····················································· 155
Ⅱ. 기울어진 사회구조와 총통선거 ························································· 157
Ⅲ. 변화에 적응한 양안관계 비전 ·························································· 160
Ⅳ. 준비된 후보 : 정당·후보 지지율 추이 및 매력도 ····························· 163
Ⅴ. 종합 및 시사점 ··············································································· 165
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