인공지능 기반의 국가위기관리 정책발전론(양장본 Hardcover)
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불확실한 안보환경에서 인공지능과 국가위기관리정책의 콜라보레이션
지금 세계는 인공지능(AI) 기술의 시조로 불리우는 영국의 수학자 앨런 튜링(Alan M. Turing)이 1950년대에 생각한 것 이상으로 인공지능(AI) 기술의 빠른 발전으로 산업과 사회, 인간의 삶에 전반적으로 문명사적 거대한 변화를 겪고 있다. 인공지능(AI)은 산업과 사회 등 전 분야에서 패러다임의 변화를 촉발하여 지능정보사회를 이끌고 있다. 또한 국가위기관리 패러다임 혁신에도 크게 영향을 줄 것은 자명하다.
국가의 안보환경은 불확실하기에 미리 예측하고 대비하는 것이 매우 어렵다.특히, 포괄안보의 개념이 적용되는 현대사회에서는 더욱 제한적일 수밖에 없다. 이러한 제한사항을 극복하고 불확실성을 최소화 한다면 효율적인 국가위기관리가 가능할 것이다. 이는 4차산업혁명기 가장 주목을 받고 있는 인공지능에서 구 가능성을 찾아 볼 수 있다.
이 책은 4차산업혁명기 포괄안보시대에서 인공지능을 기반으로 하는 국가위기관리정책의 발전 방안을 실증적으로 분석한 것이다. 학문에는 영역이 없다. 이 책이 사회과학 분야와 자연과학 분야의 융ㆍ복합적 연구의 표본이 되고 정부의 관련 정책 수립에 도움이 되기를 바란다.
지금 세계는 인공지능(AI) 기술의 시조로 불리우는 영국의 수학자 앨런 튜링(Alan M. Turing)이 1950년대에 생각한 것 이상으로 인공지능(AI) 기술의 빠른 발전으로 산업과 사회, 인간의 삶에 전반적으로 문명사적 거대한 변화를 겪고 있다. 인공지능(AI)은 산업과 사회 등 전 분야에서 패러다임의 변화를 촉발하여 지능정보사회를 이끌고 있다. 또한 국가위기관리 패러다임 혁신에도 크게 영향을 줄 것은 자명하다.
국가의 안보환경은 불확실하기에 미리 예측하고 대비하는 것이 매우 어렵다.특히, 포괄안보의 개념이 적용되는 현대사회에서는 더욱 제한적일 수밖에 없다. 이러한 제한사항을 극복하고 불확실성을 최소화 한다면 효율적인 국가위기관리가 가능할 것이다. 이는 4차산업혁명기 가장 주목을 받고 있는 인공지능에서 구 가능성을 찾아 볼 수 있다.
이 책은 4차산업혁명기 포괄안보시대에서 인공지능을 기반으로 하는 국가위기관리정책의 발전 방안을 실증적으로 분석한 것이다. 학문에는 영역이 없다. 이 책이 사회과학 분야와 자연과학 분야의 융ㆍ복합적 연구의 표본이 되고 정부의 관련 정책 수립에 도움이 되기를 바란다.
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프롤로그 ···································································································· 4
추천사 ······································································································· 9
추천사 ······································································································ 11
■ 제1장 국가위기관리정책발전의 이해
제1절 개 요 ··········································································· 22
제2절 인공지능 기반의 국가위기관리정책발전의 필요성 ······· 26
■ 제2장 이론적 논의
제1절 국가안보환경과 국가위기관리체계의 변화 ··················· 32
1. 국가안보환경의 변화 ················································ 32
2. 국가위기관리체계의 변화 ········································· 43
가. 위기의 개념 ························································· 49
나. 위기관리의 개념과 유형 ······································ 53
다. 위기관리의 정책적 의의와 집행 ··························· 61
제2절 제4차 산업혁명시대와 인공지능 ·································· 68
1. 제4차 산업혁명시대의 도래 ······································ 68
2. 인공지능 정책 ·························································· 76
가. 인공지능의 개념과 분류 ····································· 76
나. 주요국의 인공지능 정책 추진 ······························ 79
다. 한국의 인공지능 정책 추진 ································· 81
라. 인공지능의 정책적 이슈 ····································· 88
제3절 국가위기관리정책의 발전 ············································ 99
1. 정책결정의 패러다임 변화 ········································ 99
가. 전통적 정책결정 모형 ······································· 100
나. 정치적 정책결정과 행정적 정책결정 ·················· 103
다. 정책결정의 패러다임 변화 ································ 105
2. 인공지능 기반의 국가위기관리정책 ························ 109
가. 정보통신기술을 활용하는 국가위기관리 ············ 115
나. 데이터에 근거하는 국가위기관리 ······················ 118
제4절 인공지능과 위기의 특성 ············································· 127
1. 인공지능의 특성 ····················································· 127
2. 위기의 특성 ···························································· 136
3. 인공지능 기술의 발전과 위기관리의 정보화 ············ 138
제5절 선행연구 고찰 ··························································· 147
제6절 소결론: 이론적 함의와 시사점 ···································· 167
■ 제3장 분석의 방법
제1절 분석의 틀과 분석 절차 ··············································· 176
1. 분석 요소 선정 ······················································· 176
2. 분석의 틀 ······························································· 178
3. 분석 절차 ······························································· 179
제2절 분석의 방법 ······························································· 182
1. 문헌 분석 ······························································· 182
2. 전문가 인터뷰, 토론, 설문 분석 ······························· 183
3. SPRO, PEST, SWOT 분석 ·········································· 186
4. AHP 분석 ································································ 189
■ 제4장 인공지능 운용사례 분석
제1절 개 요 ········································································· 196
제2절 Watson for Oncology ·················································· 198
1. 개 요 ······································································ 198
2. 운용 체계 ······························································· 201
3. 운용 효과 분석 ······················································· 204
4. 시사점 ···································································· 207
제3절 Exobrain ···································································· 209
1. 개 요 ······································································ 209
2. 운용 체계 ······························································· 212
3. 운용 효과 분석 ······················································· 214
4. 시사점 ···································································· 216
제4절 Deep View ································································· 218
1. 개 요 ······································································ 218
2. 운용 체계 ······························································· 221
3. 운용 효과 분석 ······················································· 222
4. 시사점 ···································································· 224
제5절 소결론 ······································································· 225
■ 제5장 국가위기관리정책 발전방향과 발전전략
제1절 전문가 인터뷰와 토론 분석 ········································ 232
1. 개 요 ······································································ 232
2. 분석 결과 ······························································· 236
3. 시사점 ···································································· 247
제2절 내부역량과 외부환경 분석 ········································· 251
1. 개 요 ······································································ 251
2. 분석 결과 ······························································· 252
3. 시사점 ···································································· 256
제3절 발전 요소 도출과 우선순위 선정 ································ 259
1. 개 요 ······································································ 259
2. 분석 결과 ······························································· 262
가. 중요성 측면에서의 분석 결과 ···························· 264
나. 시급성 측면에서의 분석 결과 ···························· 267
3. 시사점 ···································································· 269
제4절 분석 결과에 의한 발전 전략 수립 ······························· 271
1. 개 요 ······································································ 271
2. 발전 전략 수립 ······················································· 272
가. 중요성 기준의 분석 결과에 의한 발전 전략 수립 ·· 272
나. 시급성 기준의 분석 결과에 의한 발전 전략 수립 ·· 274
다. 정책 포트폴리오 구성 ········································· 276
제5절 소결론 ········································································· 279
■ 제6장 맺음말 ····································································· 283
영어약어 ················································································· 290
참고문헌 ················································································· 292
추천사 ······································································································· 9
추천사 ······································································································ 11
■ 제1장 국가위기관리정책발전의 이해
제1절 개 요 ··········································································· 22
제2절 인공지능 기반의 국가위기관리정책발전의 필요성 ······· 26
■ 제2장 이론적 논의
제1절 국가안보환경과 국가위기관리체계의 변화 ··················· 32
1. 국가안보환경의 변화 ················································ 32
2. 국가위기관리체계의 변화 ········································· 43
가. 위기의 개념 ························································· 49
나. 위기관리의 개념과 유형 ······································ 53
다. 위기관리의 정책적 의의와 집행 ··························· 61
제2절 제4차 산업혁명시대와 인공지능 ·································· 68
1. 제4차 산업혁명시대의 도래 ······································ 68
2. 인공지능 정책 ·························································· 76
가. 인공지능의 개념과 분류 ····································· 76
나. 주요국의 인공지능 정책 추진 ······························ 79
다. 한국의 인공지능 정책 추진 ································· 81
라. 인공지능의 정책적 이슈 ····································· 88
제3절 국가위기관리정책의 발전 ············································ 99
1. 정책결정의 패러다임 변화 ········································ 99
가. 전통적 정책결정 모형 ······································· 100
나. 정치적 정책결정과 행정적 정책결정 ·················· 103
다. 정책결정의 패러다임 변화 ································ 105
2. 인공지능 기반의 국가위기관리정책 ························ 109
가. 정보통신기술을 활용하는 국가위기관리 ············ 115
나. 데이터에 근거하는 국가위기관리 ······················ 118
제4절 인공지능과 위기의 특성 ············································· 127
1. 인공지능의 특성 ····················································· 127
2. 위기의 특성 ···························································· 136
3. 인공지능 기술의 발전과 위기관리의 정보화 ············ 138
제5절 선행연구 고찰 ··························································· 147
제6절 소결론: 이론적 함의와 시사점 ···································· 167
■ 제3장 분석의 방법
제1절 분석의 틀과 분석 절차 ··············································· 176
1. 분석 요소 선정 ······················································· 176
2. 분석의 틀 ······························································· 178
3. 분석 절차 ······························································· 179
제2절 분석의 방법 ······························································· 182
1. 문헌 분석 ······························································· 182
2. 전문가 인터뷰, 토론, 설문 분석 ······························· 183
3. SPRO, PEST, SWOT 분석 ·········································· 186
4. AHP 분석 ································································ 189
■ 제4장 인공지능 운용사례 분석
제1절 개 요 ········································································· 196
제2절 Watson for Oncology ·················································· 198
1. 개 요 ······································································ 198
2. 운용 체계 ······························································· 201
3. 운용 효과 분석 ······················································· 204
4. 시사점 ···································································· 207
제3절 Exobrain ···································································· 209
1. 개 요 ······································································ 209
2. 운용 체계 ······························································· 212
3. 운용 효과 분석 ······················································· 214
4. 시사점 ···································································· 216
제4절 Deep View ································································· 218
1. 개 요 ······································································ 218
2. 운용 체계 ······························································· 221
3. 운용 효과 분석 ······················································· 222
4. 시사점 ···································································· 224
제5절 소결론 ······································································· 225
■ 제5장 국가위기관리정책 발전방향과 발전전략
제1절 전문가 인터뷰와 토론 분석 ········································ 232
1. 개 요 ······································································ 232
2. 분석 결과 ······························································· 236
3. 시사점 ···································································· 247
제2절 내부역량과 외부환경 분석 ········································· 251
1. 개 요 ······································································ 251
2. 분석 결과 ······························································· 252
3. 시사점 ···································································· 256
제3절 발전 요소 도출과 우선순위 선정 ································ 259
1. 개 요 ······································································ 259
2. 분석 결과 ······························································· 262
가. 중요성 측면에서의 분석 결과 ···························· 264
나. 시급성 측면에서의 분석 결과 ···························· 267
3. 시사점 ···································································· 269
제4절 분석 결과에 의한 발전 전략 수립 ······························· 271
1. 개 요 ······································································ 271
2. 발전 전략 수립 ······················································· 272
가. 중요성 기준의 분석 결과에 의한 발전 전략 수립 ·· 272
나. 시급성 기준의 분석 결과에 의한 발전 전략 수립 ·· 274
다. 정책 포트폴리오 구성 ········································· 276
제5절 소결론 ········································································· 279
■ 제6장 맺음말 ····································································· 283
영어약어 ················································································· 290
참고문헌 ················································································· 292
저자
저자
최원상
○ 주요 약력
· 행정안전부 비상계획전문경력관
· 한남대학교 경영국방전략대학원 겸임교수
· 한성대학교 국방과학대학원 겸임교수
○ 주요 학력
· 충남대학교 군사학박사(2021)
· 한성대학교 국제안보전략학석사(2006)
· 충남대학교 경제학사(1994)
· 서대전고등학교(1990)
○ 주요 연구(한국연구재단 등재학술지 게재 논문)
· 국가위기관리를 위한 인공지능 활용 가능성에 관한 고찰: 인공지능 운용과 연구 개발 사례
를 중심으로(한국디지털정책학회, 2021)
· SPRO-PEST-SWOT 분석에 의한 인공지능 기반의 국가위기관리정책 발전요인과 발전전략
에 관한 연구(한국융합보안학회, 2021)
· 정부 비상대비정책 우선순위 도출에 관한 연구(한국융합보안학회, 2020)
· 인공지능 기반의 지능형 재난안전관리체계 구축에 관한 연구(한국방재학회, 2020)
· 지능정보사회에서 국가위기관리의 지능화에 관한 연구(crisisonomy, 2020)
· 4차 산업혁명기 인공지능과 빅데이터 운용을 위한 개인정보 보호와 이용에 관한 연구(한국
융합보안학회, 2019)
· 트럼프 행정부의 동맹정책 변화에 관한 연구(한국융합보안학회, 2019)
· 4차 산업혁명기 정부 비상대비정책의 패러다임 전환에 관한 연구(crisisonomy, 2019)
○ 주요 수상
· 박사과정 졸업 성적우수 총장상(충남대학교, 2021)
· 위기관리 신진학자 전국학술대회 우수논문상(충북대학교 국가위기관리연구소, 2020)
· 전국재난안전 논문공모전 우수논문상(한국방재학회, 2019)
· 학술대회 우수논문상(한국융합보안학회, 2019)
· 석사과정 졸업 최우수논문 총장상(한성대학교, 2006)
· 행정안전부 비상계획전문경력관
· 한남대학교 경영국방전략대학원 겸임교수
· 한성대학교 국방과학대학원 겸임교수
○ 주요 학력
· 충남대학교 군사학박사(2021)
· 한성대학교 국제안보전략학석사(2006)
· 충남대학교 경제학사(1994)
· 서대전고등학교(1990)
○ 주요 연구(한국연구재단 등재학술지 게재 논문)
· 국가위기관리를 위한 인공지능 활용 가능성에 관한 고찰: 인공지능 운용과 연구 개발 사례
를 중심으로(한국디지털정책학회, 2021)
· SPRO-PEST-SWOT 분석에 의한 인공지능 기반의 국가위기관리정책 발전요인과 발전전략
에 관한 연구(한국융합보안학회, 2021)
· 정부 비상대비정책 우선순위 도출에 관한 연구(한국융합보안학회, 2020)
· 인공지능 기반의 지능형 재난안전관리체계 구축에 관한 연구(한국방재학회, 2020)
· 지능정보사회에서 국가위기관리의 지능화에 관한 연구(crisisonomy, 2020)
· 4차 산업혁명기 인공지능과 빅데이터 운용을 위한 개인정보 보호와 이용에 관한 연구(한국
융합보안학회, 2019)
· 트럼프 행정부의 동맹정책 변화에 관한 연구(한국융합보안학회, 2019)
· 4차 산업혁명기 정부 비상대비정책의 패러다임 전환에 관한 연구(crisisonomy, 2019)
○ 주요 수상
· 박사과정 졸업 성적우수 총장상(충남대학교, 2021)
· 위기관리 신진학자 전국학술대회 우수논문상(충북대학교 국가위기관리연구소, 2020)
· 전국재난안전 논문공모전 우수논문상(한국방재학회, 2019)
· 학술대회 우수논문상(한국융합보안학회, 2019)
· 석사과정 졸업 최우수논문 총장상(한성대학교, 2006)
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